A New Year's Celebration in Washington Heights...

The merengue is blaring, the drinks flow freely, the kids jump on a bed close by, the food is rich and bountiful, and the Dominican Republic is all over the smiling faces of the friends and family present. So rings in the new year in a small first floor apartment on 139th Street and Broadway in New York City.

It's about 11:30pm and everyone waits for midnight and 2006. My little vantage point for the occasion is a chair in a very narrow hallway at the entrance to the very tiny livingroom you see in the above picture. Personally I can't help but think about how different this neighborhood must be now compared to when my grandmother came here in 1949. Despite the amount of acculturation my family has gone through in the subsequent 56 years, I feel quite at home here in this very typical Washington Heights scene.

The assimilation experience is much different today for Dominicans in the U.S. as closer ties to the home culture make it easier to preserve their ethnic identity. There's even a Dominican channel on cable as I write this!!!

I look around and notice something very interesting. Normally one would frame and hang a college diploma. Here there are two diplomas on the wall, but they are from a junior high and high school respectively. Given how poorly this community performs academically, is this a sign of accomplishment or the visual representation of a glass ceiling Dominicans struggle to break through?

Noella's here covering her ears as she walks back to the relative "quiet" of the tiny bedroom. I've said it before and I'll say it again, my family is lucky to be where we are today. I'm proud of my heritage, and I'm glad that my daughter has the opportunities she does thanks to five Dominican sisters who came to the US between the 1930's & 1950's....

TBP Part 1: The Housing Market & the American Economy

"I would say that as housing goes, so goes the economy."

I have been thinking about this for months before David Rosenberg, chief US economist at Merrill Lynch, said this on Tuesday. The housing market has grown at an unsustainable pace and especially so in certain markets on the west and east coasts. What has helped float our "economic recovery" is the infusion of capital from home equity. People have been cashing in with refinancing and have been pumping the cash back into the economy. Consumer spending is what has helped to drive the economy as people buy their SUV's, Ipods, and flat screen TV's. So what happens when the housing market slows down and provides people less capital? This "economic recovery" seems to be built on a big lie: it has been financed by debt that will eventually have to be paid back!!!

Many economists feel that the housing market will flatten and perhaps they are right, but what will happen to all those who people took risky mortgages to purchase homes they could otherwise not afford. These people came in hoping they could cash in and if the market flattens or even reverses, as can definitely happen in certain areas, many will be left hung out to dry.

But here's the bigger picture: the US dollar has been predicted to weaken by many and has yet to do so because Asia, mainly China, and other foreign markets continue to buy US Dollars. (The trillion dollars of t-bills held by China and others helped to make morgates cheaper by the way) The Euro was predicted to out-perform the Dollar but turmoil in France and the European Union undermined that. If foreign investors start worrying about the US debt (which is huge all around and growing), and if the Euro gets stronger, then the Dollar will get more expensive for us at home as interest rates will rise to make it more attractive to foreign investors. Rising interest rates mean higher mortgage and credit card payments which eventually will mean less buying, more defaulting, and a weaker economy.

All of this and I have yet to talk about oil and gas prices....

The "Big Picture" for 2006 & Beyond

I've given some thought into what I'd like to convey in this little corner of the internet. As a father with his eye on sociopolitical issues, I am compelled to start the new year by looking at what I believe are the issues that will define the end of this decade. I've decided to post my thoughts on what I consider seven key issues to follow in a mini-series called "The Big Picture".

As we start the new year, I'm starting the clock on when the house of cards will fall. I hate feeling like a Chicken Little, but there is this convergence of issues that all seem to be coming to a head at relatively the same time. The topics I will write an will be : The Housing Market & the American Economy; The Energy Industry; The Bush White House & The Iraq War; Congressional Scandals & The American Political System; The Post-Modern Industrialization Era of China & India; The Rise of the Third World; & American Metropolitan Centers and the Domestic Agenda.

I actually wrote and called my congressional leaders to test the waters with the kind of response I'd get. Of course they'll never give me the time of day..... I'm no academia nut or policy hack, but I have a distinct feeling that at the core of the issues mentioned above is what I think is a dark threat; that the system of American governance we see today is not what the framers had in mind. Special interests have spent over two hundred years perfecting their influence. Our political system has been hypnotized, ethics have been compromised, and our government is in the strangle hold of a two party system that has devolved into a match of wills.

Am I being fatalistic? Maybe, but sitting here watching Noella fall asleep has reminded me that complacency will neither keep her safe nor guarantee her a future with opportunity....

The Holiday News Cycle & the Real Nuclear Option

Do you ever get the feeling that something is going to happen and then it does? You don't necessarily have to be clairvoyant to get that feeling. Sometimes you can know somebody or a group of people and kind of see what they'll do next? I can't help but feel that way about the GOP these days. I'm a little bit leery of how they'll use this week's slow news cycle to their advantage. They are masters of controlling the message...This I grant them. Given how badly things have been going this fall for the GOP & the Bush Administration, I get the sense they are going to use this week to get some momentum for the coming new year.

This whole immigration debate on the major news outlets has me suspicious. Actually, who is debating if Congress is on recess...hmm. They usually find a wedge issue and float it like a balloon to see how it floats. If people bite, they use it to dive and conquer. If not, then they let it float away. The Democrats on the other hand seem content to ride the wave of unfavorable GOP poll numbers.

I'd register as an independent if they'd let me vote in the primaries of a major party here in NYC, but they won't.... So I err on the side of being a registered Democrat. If you ask me what I think the Dems should do is go gung-ho on dismantling the two party system and the current political campaign fund process, even at the expense of seeing their own party destroyed. I call it the "Real Nuclear Option": kamikaze the Democratic Party on the sacrificial knife of what they believe in--social justice and equality. I think dismatling this system is something most Americans can support given how unpopular Congress is and how fickle the public can be with either party.

That's my two cents.....

An Introspective Christmas

This is Noella with her "Dora Sofa Bed" and a stuffed collie toy she picked out herself but didn't know we had bought for her. I don't know, but when I was a kid I never made a killing on gifts the way Noella and her cousins do, and for that reason I have to say they are very blessed. Not only are the toys and games more sofisticated, but there is a whole industry geared toward inventing gifts for children with bells and whistles!!!

I'm not being down on Christmas. On the contrary I love this time of year, and the fact that children in our family are getting a wealth of gifts shows just how well some of us in my generation are doing. In our little household, for instance, we can afford to blow $100 or $125 on Noella's gifts without even thinking about it. When Christine & I were kids, it was a much different story. Oh, as I got older I got some cools gifts like an "Atari 2600" (yes, that was $140 of paradise back then!!), but in general Christimas splurging was not an option. Thirty some odd years and a couple of academic degrees later, Christine & I are fulfilling the next step in our parents' American Dream.

I wonder if we are not spoiling our generation too much? How do you give your kids what you never had yet still teach them the meaning of hard work and sacrifice? That is a balance, I know, we have yet to find...this whole parenthood thing did not come with workshops and manuals.....

Well, it was a nice Christmas this year, and with that holiday behind us I look ahead to the New Year and what lies ahead. I don't like "resolutions", but I do like checking in with myself from time to time. What will 2006 bring us? I'm not sure, but my sense is that it will be the year we all have to "kick it up a notch"...

Noella's Carreer Choice?

A funny thing happened leaving home today. Noella, out of the blue, told me, "Papa, when I grow up and I get big, I wanna fight bad guys..." Okay, so nevermind for a second that this is the last thing I expect out of her mouth as we go out to get breakfast. At what level is she imagining herself doing this? She has some concept that police officers and fire fighters save people, but she didn't say that. We also think she has a pretty good concept of right and wrong. When I consider what she could possibly mean by this, what I am left with is this: She wants to do good, and she wants help by stopping the people who do bad things to begin with.

I don't think that is such a stretch for a four year old, and it fills me with so much pride to see how consientious she is becoming. Now, at four years of age concepts of right and wrong are pretty straight forward; black and white. Where Christine and I have or work cut out for us is how to explain the large areas of grey as her thinking becomes more sophisticated and yet leave enough space for her to form her own opinions as she gets older? I'm actually looking forward to those times (but not too much...hey, I want time to slow down a bit 'cause it's movin' a little too fast for me.)

What will her reaction be once she understand the times we live in? What will she think about having to scrifice civil liberties in the name of domestic security? What will her opinion be of fanatics who blow up buildings to make a point? How frustrated will she be by how previous generations left her buried under trillions of dollars of national debt, unchecked social inequalities, a power hungry political system corrupted by money and powerful interests, an unafforable healthcare system, and a rampant political polarization?

What will she do when the bad guys look just like the good guys?.....

Goodnight Moon, & Other Bedtime Stories

I'm glad I went to work today; there was tons to do like always and not enough time to do it all. It's always nice when you get through a task that beforehand feels like you'll never get done.

As I write this on our laptop, Noella is in bed next to me and has yet to fall asleep. When Christine or I are on vacation, we let her go to sleep later, but this is ridiculous! It's taken and hour and a half already!!! Anyway, I'm on "night watch" while Christine is tackling the seemingly impossible task of going through those enormous stacks of paper on our desk I mentioned in an earlier blog. We always trade off who gets Noella ready for bed and reads her the bedtime stories, and tonight, given the mess in the other rooms, I'd rather be here!!!

The last book read after a going through 3 or 4 at bedtime is, as always, "Goodnight Moon". My own bedtime stories always include a healthy dosage of news reports from the CNN, MSNBC, and MSN Video websites. I'm never sure if that's such a good idea..... Today the news cycles seem to be focued on the Bush Secret Spying scandal, the US Senate debates on the Patriot Act and a Defense Budget measure, and the NYC Transit Strike. Man, where the heck are we going with this country? I mean, what could possibly happen next? News never seemed this intense at such frequency before....has it? Goodnight Moon, or at least as good as it can get....

Tired & Tempted

Somedays you wake up and just want to stay in bed....this is one of those days. It's been a long couple of months wearing several hats at work, being a daddy to Noella in the evening, and all kinds of other demands throughout the day for weeks on end. It feels like I haven't had a day off in a really long time, and today it's so cold outside. Over my shoulder is NY1 coverage of the NYC Transit Strike, and in front of me is a stack of papers accumulated so high on my desk at home that I literally can't see half of the computer monitor. Sometimes you just need to turn off life for a few hours to get some rest....

Okay, I'll compromise.....I really want to go to work today to be honest, I just need a break at somepoint...geez.... I'll go in a little later today and use some comp time I've got accumulated (yes, I have that flexibility so I could be in a worse position). Life is really good to me....but everyone has to decompress at some point, don't they? Thanks to this little space on the internet, I can blow off a little steam...

Let me not put on the National news so I don't get bummed about that and change my mind!!

Holiday Shopping, the Economy, & Noella Goes Exploring

I can't believe it, but we are actually almost finished with our Christmas Shopping!!! That is a small miracle seeing how busy Christine & I have been the last three weeks. Noella loves to shop...well what she actually loves is "go exploring" while mommy picks out the gifts. I just let Noella lead me around the Palisades Mall in Rockland County, NY and she's in heaven!

I wonder how buisnesses are doing this season? It seems as if all the malls are full to capacity, but at the same time there are tons of discouts to be had....especially in electronics! We just couldn't help but buying a twenty inch flat panel TV for just $88!!! Whatever the case is I'm very concerned about where our economy is headed. The housing market seems to be softening in the boom areas like California and parts of the east coast, and it's been the housing industry that has helped Americans gain extra capital all the discretionary spending that has floated our "recovery" for the five years.

We are trying to instill in Noella a sense of fiscal responsibility. We are teaching her the value of hard work and the value of money in simple easy to understand concepts. At four years old, there is only so much she can grasp, but she is beginning to see that sometimes we have money and sometimes we don't. Speaking of money, it seems like 2006 will be a good year for us as we start to save money and pay off more debt. America has become a debtor nation. Until we start saving cash and spending more wisely, what kind of country will our children inherit from us, and that's not even getting into our social ills?

Man, this is getting too heavy. Let me just enjoy the Holidays and watch Noella open her gifts....

One Eye on My Family, & the Other on...

The bond between a mother and a daughter is something special indeed. This random picture was taken 11/20/05...I can't remember why or where, but it tells me everthything I see and feel when I watch Christine & Noella together. As I write this, they are in Noella's room together doing something, what exactly I have no idea, but the time they spend together is precious. I'll do anything to protect them, and everytime I watch the news my thoughts are always connecting the lines between the relevance of current events and my family.

President Bush held a press conference today defending his executive order allowing the NSA to spy on Americans. Now, while I agree that we need to win the war of information, I do not see reason to circumvent the checks and balances created to make sure the actions we do take are within the spirit of the US Constitution. There is a special secret court within the US Justice Department that almost always approves warant for spying on Americans, so why does the Bush Administration feel it's justified to circumvent that?

I am suspicious of the timing of this leak and subsequent comments by the Bush Administration. Why did this come out on a Friday, the day of the week when newsmakers bury damaging stories before the weekend? Why did the NY Times wait one year to leak this? Is it a coincidence that all this started coming out as the Senate was debating the renewal of the US Patriot Act that was defeated by House procedures? The newsmakers in Washington are too smart for this and always ten steps ahead of everyone for it not to be a coincidence.

In any case, we are here at home waiting for a special guest coming to see Noella, and then we are off to do some more Christmas shopping. I hope I can keep my mind on those things and not get too distracted by current events...

The Future....

"Always in motion the future is." That's what a wise old Jedi Master said once. As I keep track of current events in mainstream media (and current events that slip unnoticed in mainstream media), I can't help but think of Noella, my four year old daughter who will never know what the World Trade Center is...but will always be reminded of how different the world was one month before she was born as the US continues commemorating the 9/11 Anniversaies well into her future.

I'm not really a blog fan, but I'm compelled to stake my claim to this little corner of the internet and make comment as a father who is not sure what kind of world he brought a child into. Through the eyes of parenthood the world seems like such a different place, but the effect was magnified on 9/11/2001 as I drove down Riverside Drive on Manhattan's west side with the WTC on fire in the foreground and my mind on where my 8-month pregnant wife was. As I raced to pick her up, the wisdom of that Jedi Master struck my core....the future I saw for my family was in effect no more...

In motion the future still is as uncertain is our fate, and oblivious Noella will continue to be as she jumps around in her 99 cent squeeky shoes made in China....